As the calendar flips to October and daylight hours rapidly decline, winter is on the minds of many in the region. You won’t need to bundle up in layers often this winter, according to the Hagerstown Almanack.
While drought intensity has decreased late this summer, the area has maintained at least a moderate level of drought for 13 months. If this long-term drought continues until early November, which looks realistic, it will tie the drought of 2001-2002 as the longest duration since the Drought Monitor came into existence in 2000.
That being said, the Almanack is forecasting occasional bursts of rain this month and the very strong El Nino developing will allow sufficient moisture to return in November. The Almanack predicts the entirety of Washington and Franklin counties will be drought-free by Thanksgiving.
The dominant weather signal going forward from late November into March includes the east-based very strong El Nino that will reach record territory by Martin Luther King Jr. weekend. Other factors include a negative to neutral Pacific-Decadal Oscillation, westerly phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, positive Indian Dipole late this fall and a strong polar vortex, becoming weaker by late winter.
The Hagerstown Almanack is forecasting a wet start to winter, then a drier January with near average precipitation (rain and melted snow and ice) in February. That being said, snowfall amounts for the winter season will reach 6-10 inches, which is a far cry from the 30-year historical average of 20-25 inches. A better measure of recent snowfall trends is the 10-year average, which is 17.8 inches. Still, the Almanack expects amounts to fall short of that amount as well.
The Hagerstown Almanack says most snow of this 6-10 inch range will occur in mid- to late February. The average temperature this winter will rank as the fifth warmest since records began in 1900. One chilly blast will arrive around Jan. 21, 2027, but come and go pretty quickly. The coldest blast of air will occur in early February and stick around for 3-5 days.
The Almanack’s weather prognosticator said this will be one of the most challenging ski seasons for nearby resorts in the Mid-Atlantic east of the Alleghenies due to the lack of sustainable cold weather. Wet bulb temperatures of 29 degrees or lower are usually required for ski resorts to consider turning on snowmaking machines. Nights with wet bulb temperatures that cold will be few and far between, except late January to mid-February. The Almanack predicts the ski season will be cut short by three to four weeks compared to recent years.
Ski resorts in other parts of the Mid-Atlantic will also experience an abbreviated season but won’t be in as much jeopardy because air temperatures will allow for more snowmaking opportunities. Nonetheless, the Almanack says during the height of the ski season from late December to early February, it will be difficult for ski resorts to have all trails open. There will even be times when resorts may have to close during the week to conserve the snowpack.
For more on the detailed monthly forecast for the winter season and other future predictions, pick up your copy of the 2027 Hagerstown Almanack online or in select stores.
The new 2027 edition is available now. To get your copy, just click on this link: localnews1.org/almanack-order.
LocalNews1 has partnered with The Almanack to bring you a story every Monday taken from current or past editions.
Editor’s note: This forecast was prepared by The Almanack staff.
